With the 1st quarter of 2018 in the books, nostalgia for the calm of 2017 is palpable. As you recall, major asset classes finished in positive
territory for the year, and financial markets proved to be relatively immune to negative headlines. Thus far, 2018 has exhibited an entirely
new temperament with volatility more in line with historical levels. Fears over interest rates, inflation, tariffs and trade wars have offered
perplexing juxtapositions to positive economic reports, tax cuts and government spending – all of which have contributed to financial
markets seesawing forcibly at times.
The global capital markets delivered strong results in 2017. Global stocks registered their second best year in the ten calendar years since 2008. Commodities notched their fourth best year and real estate its fifth best year over the same period. While US and world bonds have had multiple solid years over the decade, positive results in 2017 were a noteworthy triumph as interest rate headwinds continued to build.
Despite a flurry of unnerving headlines during the quarter, the volatility of global stocks remains at historic lows. Major indices in the U.S., Europe and Asia have managed to avoid a retreat of 5% or more so far in 2017. Typically, 5% pullbacks occur once per quarter with 10% corrections at least annually, and 20% drops once per market cycle for most developed stock markets.
Emerging market stocks registered another strong quarter returning 6.3% for the period. International developed stocks and US stocks also rose, returning 5.6% and 3.0% respectively. Global real estate increased 2.0%, while U.S bonds returned 1.7% and global bonds returned 0.4%. Commodities declined for the second quarter in a row falling 3.0% for the period. With the first half of 2017 in the books, six of the seven major asset classes are in positive territory.
Equities led the way with Emerging Markets stocks returning 11.5%, International Developed stocks returning 6.8% and U.S. stocks returning 5.7% for the period. U.S bonds, global bonds and real estate reversed their retreat from last quarter and commodities registered the only negative return for the quarter.